미국 달러 가치가 이란 핵 협상 기대감으로 인한 위험 회피 심리 확산 속에 6주 만에 최저치로 하락

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The dollar retreated on Wednesday and hovered near six-week lows, giving back most of the gains built up since the outbreak of war in the Middle East, as renewed hopes for diplomacy between Washington and Iran improved appetite for risk.

The move came as investors responded to signs that talks could resume in Pakistan within days, easing some of the demand for the greenback as a haven and helping higher-beta assets regain ground.

The euro traded near recent highs at around $1.1793, not far from the six-week peak touched overnight, while sterling climbed to $1.3574, leaving the US currency under pressure after a string of recent declines.

The shift underscored how quickly markets can unwind defensive positioning when geopolitical tensions show even limited signs of easing.

Diplomacy hopes pressure the dollar

Investors took their cue from comments by President Donald Trump, who said talks aimed at ending the conflict could resume in Pakistan in the coming days after weekend negotiations in Islamabad collapsed.

The remarks offered markets a possible path away from confrontation, even if no concrete breakthrough has yet emerged.

“There is a growing expectation that the standoff will soon be resolved, allowing the US administration to pivot towards declaring victory, before stimulating the economy ahead of the midterms,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.

That view helped weaken the dollar across the board.

As fears of a prolonged conflict eased, traders rotated away from the safety of the greenback and back towards currencies and assets more closely tied to improving risk sentiment.

The euro and pound were among the clearest beneficiaries, while cryptocurrencies also edged higher.

Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $74,612 on Wednesday, remaining just below a two-month high touched in the previous session.

The move suggested that investors were not only trimming safe-haven exposure, but were also showing renewed willingness to re-enter more speculative trades.

Markets look past the oil shock

Oil prices also extended the previous session’s decline as hopes of renewed diplomacy prompted traders to pare back part of the geopolitical premium that had built up over recent weeks.

Brent crude fell 0.28% to $94.52 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.7% to $90.64 a barrel, after dropping 4.6% and 7.9% respectively in the previous session.

The retreat in crude has become central to the broader market story.

For much of the conflict, surging oil prices had amplified fears of a fresh inflation shock, especially as investors worried that energy supply disruptions could ripple quickly through global growth and consumer prices.

Lower oil has helped markets look beyond the immediate military risk and focus instead on the possibility that a diplomatic off-ramp may be taking shape.

That in turn has improved sentiment across asset classes, with traders increasingly willing to believe that the worst-case scenario for energy markets may yet be avoided.

Backdrop and what comes next

Even so, the backdrop remains fragile.

Since the start of the US-Israel war on Feb 28, Tehran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas shipments pass.

Washington responded by imposing a blockade on Iranian ports after talks in Islamabad failed to deliver an immediate ceasefire, though a two-week truce remains in place with one week still to run.

Trump said on Tuesday that he was open to resuming talks with Iran in Pakistan, while Iran and Pakistani officials have also indicated that discussions could still take place.

That leaves markets in a delicate position: encouraged by the prospect of renewed diplomacy, but still vulnerable to any sign that the latest opening could collapse as quickly as the last one.

For now, currency markets are reflecting cautious optimism.

If talks do resume and oil continues to ease, the dollar may surrender more of its war-driven gains.

If diplomacy falters again, the haven bid could return just as quickly.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:b09286434094b:0-us-dollar-slides-to-6-week-low-as-iran-talks-hopes-spark-risk-rally/