만약 이란 문제가 없었다면, 캐나다에서는 금리 인하에 대한 논의가 주를 이루었을 것입니다. - 시장 동향

[lklol]

0940 ET - Canada's inflation report for March could have been much worse, says Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. Higher energy prices drove inflation to 2.4% from the prior month's 1.8% reading, although missing expectations for a 2.6% surge. Components related to energy, led by gasoline, pushed inflation higher, while items like telephone services, auto insurance, furniture and some shelter costs posted declines. This indicates "the underlying story for the economy is softness," Porter says. Underlying inflation, therefore, looks contained, he adds. "Were it not for the conflict in Iran," Porter says, "the discussion would currently be revolving around the strong possibility of Bank of Canada rate cuts, not hikes." (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0930 ET - National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett says he has not spoken directly with Treasury Secretary Bessent about WSJ reports that the United Arab Emirates has opened talks with the U.S. about obtaining a financial backstop. He calls the UAE an "incredibly valuable ally" and says he is sure the Treasury Secretary would "make every effort" to help if necessary. However he added that support is likely unnecessary, pointing to Trump's comments that peace talks are progressing. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0920 ET - Inflation in Canada accelerated sharply to 2.4% in March from the prior month's 1.8% reading. That said, the jump was slightly below consensus expectations for a 2.6% rise. Economist Andrew Grantham at CIBC Capital Markets says the March data suggest limited signs of higher energy costs lifting other goods and services — noting that four closely watched gauges of core prices rose 0.1% on a month-over-month basis. Grantham says inflation likely jumps to 3% in April before easing in May as a result of the federal government implementing a temporary cut in fuel taxes. He adds spare capacity in the economy should prevent core CPI from reaccelerating too much, and keep the Bank of Canada on hold with rates through 2026. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0905 ET - Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh has argued that a coming productivity boom may give the Federal Reserve scope to bring interest rates lower, if greater productivity allows for low-inflation economic growth. But though economist Ed Yardeni also anticipates a technological boost to the economy this decade, he disagrees that outcome would justify lower rates. "While we share Warsh's optimism about productivity, we reach a fundamentally different conclusion about what it means for monetary policy," Yardeni writes to clients. Yardeni believes that faster growth will increase the natural rate of interest, or R*, the baseline rate the Fed targets to neither stimulate nor restrain the economy. "If the Fed lowers the federal funds rate below R*, the risk is that it will fuel financial speculation and instability," he writes. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattrossman)

0858 ET - Inflation did indeed accelerate in March, as Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem predicted last week, due to a record one-month surge in gasoline prices due to the war in Iran. The year-over-year rise of 2.4%, however, fell short of market expectations. Providing further relief to Macklem et al at BOC was the reading on CPI excluding gasoline. That gauge came in at 2.2%, or very close to the BOC's 2% target and a deceleration from February's 2.4% result. The March CPI report likely keeps BOC pinned to sidelines and allows policymakers to maintain their neutral stance, pending what happens to longer-term CPI expectations. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0857 ET - The prospect of a U.S.-Iran peace deal dwindles and Treasurys sell off, sending yields higher. Iranian officials threaten not to show up to an expected new round of talks. Oil rises and the WSJ Dollar Index is up 0.1%. Warsh's nomination hearing takes place tomorrow and investors will tune in for hints on what the new Fed leadership may look like. The 10-year yield rises to 4.264% from Friday's 4.244%. The two-year increases to 3.737% from 3.699%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0850 ET - Inflation in Canada accelerated sharply last month, though not quite as aggressively as expected. The consumer price index climbed 2.4% on-year in March after rising 1.8% a month earlier. While that is the fastest pace since December, it is cooler than the 2.6% economists expected. The main driver was the largest monthly spike in gasoline prices on record. The Bank of Canada has indicated it will look through the near-term pressure on gasoline prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. It may find that easier heading into the policy meeting late this month since its preferred trim and median measures of core inflation held steady, averaging 2.3%.(robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0849 ET - Consumers expect bitcoin to end the year lower than current levels, a Deutsche Bank survey shows. Some 19% of respondents in the U.S., 22% in the EU and 18% in the U.K. said they believe bitcoin will fall to between $20,000 and $60,000 by year-end. In the U.S., 13% expect bitcoin could fall below $20,000 this year compared to 5% in the U.K. and 7% in the EU. Very few expect bitcoin to reach its all-time high near $120,000 again this year with just 1% in the EU, 4% in the U.K. and 3% in the U.S. holding this view. Bitcoin last trades up 0.8% at $75,272, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0847 ET - A Senate hearing scheduled Tuesday for Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh could prove key for the dollar's performance in the longer term, HSBC's Paul Mackel says in a note. Warsh's stance on the outlook for monetary policy, Fed independence and potential reforms, and the $6.7 trillion balance sheet are among the important factors to understand, he says. While geopolitics remain in focus in the near-term, Warsh's insights and his likely appointment will "certainly matter for the dollar in the longer run," Mackel says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0846 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds are expected to stay volatile due to increased uncertainty around the inflation outlook, Insight Investment's Jill Hirzel says in a note. Conflict in the Middle East has led to energy-supply disruptions and higher oil prices, raising inflation risks. In addition, doubts about the government's fiscal position due to increased political tensions and the possibility of a change in the U.K. leadership are likely to keep gilt yields volatile, Hirzel says. Ten-year gilt yields rise 6.2 basis points to last trade at 4.813%, reversing Friday's yields decline, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0838 ET - The dollar rises only slightly as foreign-exchange volatility remains low despite renewed uncertainty over the Iran war, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. "Uncertainty isn't supporting volatility, and a crisis which will hurt European and Asian economies much more than it harms the U.S. is not providing the dollar with lasting support," he says. Concerns about U.S. monetary and fiscal policies are also limiting the dollar's rise, keeping it stuck within a range, he says. SocGen recommends buying the Norwegian krone and Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar if the crisis ends due to more attractive yields in Australia and Norway. Norway could also benefit if oil prices stay elevated. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 98.268. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0742 ET - Bitcoin rises slightly as investors appear to shrug off uncertainty over the prospect of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. President Trump said U.S. negotiators would arrive in Pakistan on Monday for talks but Iranian state media suggested officials could skip the discussions. "Ultimately cryptocurrencies, like every other market, will stand or fall by how peace talks progress, or not, this week," IG analyst Chris Beauchamp says in a note. Cryptocurrencies look vulnerable to any real risk aversion if the conflict escalates, he says. It is also unclear whether any peace deal would help the sector much or simply revive artificial intelligence concerns, he says. Bitcoin rises 0.5% to $75,090 but remains trapped in a narrow range, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260420004490:0/