마이크로스트래티지의 510억 달러 규모 비트코인 보유량이 격렬한 논쟁을 불러일으키고 있습니다. 과연 그 가치가 절반 수준에 불과한 것일까요?

[kim]

MicroStrategy holds 762,099 Bitcoin
BTCUSD
valued at roughly $51.5 billion, but a heated debate questions whether the firm could recover even half that amount in a liquidation.

The company recently paused BTC purchases for the first time in 13 weeks, with a shift toward STRC preferred shares highlighting focus on yield-driven funding over rapid accumulation.

MicroStrategy’s Paper Value vs. Exit Value

According to Taproot Wizards co-founder Udi Wertheimer, Strategy’s BTC stash is not actually worth $51.5 billion.

“…if Saylor ever tries to sell, he’ll get no more than $20 billion for it. Probably less. Every additional dollar he puts into BTC from now on is lost forever. He already has more BTC than he can ever sell,” wrote Wertheimer.

Strategy controls roughly 3.63% of the total BTC supply. A single 500 BTC market sell order can trigger a 2-4% price decline on exchanges with moderate liquidity.

Bitget unwinding 762,099 BTC would represent an order of magnitude far beyond any historical crypto liquidation event.

Liquidity in crypto markets has improved since the collapse of FTX, and new products such as BTC and ETH ETFs have accelerated this trend.

However, it remains a complex challenge for large positions.

The Bull Case for Premium Value

Bitcoin Asset Research fired back, arguing the opposite side of the same liquidity coin. If buying 760,000 BTC on the open market would cost far above $50 billion due to slippage, the holdings carry a built-in acquisition premium.

Strategy’s enterprise value currently sits at $57 billion, with a market-to-net-asset-value ratio based on enterprise value of 1.11.

That means the market already prices the BTC position above spot value when accounting for all outstanding securities.

However, the basic mNAV tells a different story. Strategy’s basic mNAV is 0.79, meaning the common stock market cap of $40 billion is valued below the company’s BTC holdings.

Dilution Math Favors the Bulls

Adam Livingston added a chart from strategy.com showing diluted shares outstanding per BTC held dropped from 1,767 in December 2020 to 496 in March 2026. That represents a 72% decline over five years.

The mechanism works because Strategy issues shares at a premium to its BTC net asset value. When mNAV exceeds 1.0, each new share sold buys more BTC per existing share than it dilutes.

Strategy’s total holdings now stand at 762,099 BTC, acquired for approximately $57.69 billion, at an average price of $75,694 per BTC.

With BTC trading near $67,489, that translates to an unrealized loss of roughly 10%.

Both Sides Have a Point

Wertheimer later clarified in the thread that he is actually long MSTR and believes Saylor’s new preferred share issuances, like STRC, will work short-term.

His concern centers on the long-term structural exit problem that grows with each purchase.

Bitcoin Whale Transaction Count recently dropped to 6,417 transfers above $100,000, the lowest level since September 2023, indicating that large-money investors have sharply reduced their activity.

Thin whale activity suggests that even current market depth may struggle to absorb aggressive selling from any large holder.

Meanwhile, the debate mirrors a familiar tension in TradFi. Warren Buffett cannot dump his Apple position overnight without cratering the stock.

However, Strategy’s position relative to BTC’s total market is far more concentrated than any comparable equity holding.

Whether the premium or discount persists will depend on:

BTC’s price trajectory
Continued demand for issuance, and
The market’s willingness to treat Strategy as a leveraged BTC vehicle rather than a software company sitting on an illiquid pile of coins.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:0c8320873094b:0-microstrategy-s-51-billion-bitcoin-stash-sparks-fierce-debate-is-it-worth-half-that/