비트코인이 1만 달러 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상되는데, 이는 현물 거래자들이 시장에 참여하기 전까지의 상황이라는 분석입니다

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action has been pinned between $60,000 and $70,000 over the past two months as leverage-dominant trading, weak spot market demand, and consistent losses from short-term holders have prevented rallies from sustaining their momentum.

Combined, these market events create the current fragile setup, where Bitcoin price stability depends more on futures positioning than fresh capital inflows and this explains why BTC price remains volatile within its current range.

Bitcoin futures lead the price trend

According to Wintermute, the perpetual futures market activity continues to outweigh spot participation across the major exchanges. The perp-to-spot volume ratio has climbed to 15 times (15X), pointing to a price control largely by leveraged positioning. The funding rates oscillate between positive and negative without holding a trend, showing a lack of directional bias among futures traders.

Meanwhile, the funding rate volatility has compressed to 2.9%, down from the 5% range in 2025, signaling smaller swing trades in futures positioning. The traders are still using leverage, but without any strong conviction.

Together, these point to a coiling market structure, where the traders rotate within tight ranges and the funding lacks a sustained bias. This reflects indecisive and short-term leverage flows as the dominant force in the market.

Related: Is $450B in Bitcoin vulnerable to the quantum threat? Analysts weigh in

Lack of BTC spot market demand pressures short-term holders

Bitcoin spot market demand has not picked up and this is contributing to the lack of price stability. The 30-day apparent demand metic sits at -60,000 BTC, meaning more coins are moving out than being accumulated.

Stablecoin inflows into spot exchanges are often used as a sign of future buying power, and the metric is currently near $452 million. The level is close to a two-year low, showing limited new capital entering the market.

The short-term holders are adding another layer of pressure to BTC. The cohort’s realized price, or its average entry cost, is around $85,800. With Bitcoin trading far below that level, many recent buyers are holding unrealized losses.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr explained that two metrics show how this affects their behavior. The short-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR) tracks whether coins are sold at a profit or a loss.

A value below 1 means coins are being sold at a loss. Currently, the STH SOPR has stayed below 1.0 for over 110 days, showing consistent loss-taking.

At the same time, the short-term holder realized price year-on-year (YOY) has dropped to -5.35%, the first negative reading since the 2022 bear market. This confirms that losses are not short-lived and have persisted over the past few months.

When traders are underwater, the tendency to sell into small rallies and exit positions increases pressure and limits the upside, keeping the overall BTC market structure fragile.

Related: Bitcoin whale selling cools as $60K becomes the focus for BTC price
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:2d5720d7d094b:0-bitcoin-s-10k-range-expected-to-hold-until-spot-traders-show-up-data/