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Bitcoin price rallied to a weekly high of $72,698 on Tuesday on reports of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.

However, the flagship crypto has since moved lower, and the recovery could be at risk as fresh macro pressures emerge.

Bitcoin rallied 6% in less than four hours on Tuesday, mirroring the bounce in global stock markets after the warring parties reached a two-week ceasefire deal.

Bitcoin’s tightening correlation with the S&P 500 futures indicated that BTC’s rally was heavily led by the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which calmed fears of a systemic supply chain shock.

However, the rally stalled at the $72,000 resistance, triggering a major liquidation event in Bitcoin futures that wiped out over $150 million in long positions.

Ceasefire violations can trigger panic

US President Donald Trump said that Iran’s nuclear program will be deactivated in exchange for tariff and sanctions relief.

However, Bitcoin bears’ resolve strengthened after US Vice President JD Vance said the ceasefire is a "fragile truce."

Subsequently, reports emerged that the terms were being repeatedly violated in the Levant as Israel launched "Operation Eternal Darkness," targeting underground infrastructure against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel argues that the ceasefire with Iran does not cover its operations against Hezbollah, asserting its strategic independence, while Pakistan—which brokered the temporary pact—claims the agreement was contingent on a broader cooling of regional tensions.

On April 8, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament claimed the US administration had violated the spirit of the roadmap.

Iran has threatened to resume its own strikes if the offensive against its allies is not immediately halted.

While a sustainable de-escalation would likely lead to lower oil prices and lessen global inflationary pressure, any sort of escalation that restarts the conflict could be equally or even more financially damaging, especially as Bitcoin’s technical structure remains fragile.

Bitcoin has struggled to break past the $70,000 mark over the past week, and if this level is lost once again, it could retest the psychological support at $64,000.

Fed minutes suggest rate cuts are uncertain

On Wednesday, the Fed released minutes from its last FOMC meeting on March 17 and 18, which ended with an 11-1 vote to keep rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%.

While the official narrative pointed to a potential rate cut this year, the minutes revealed a consensus to act only if inflation does not get beyond their control due to rising energy costs.

Rate cuts are generally a positive catalyst for crypto, but any signs of uncertainty or news that cuts could be delayed can have the opposite effect for sensitive markets like cryptocurrencies.

While some officials were visibly optimistic about imminent rate cuts, many have cautioned that the opposite might be necessary to curb stubborn price growth.

This uncertainty could add another headwind for Bitcoin as it navigates a volatile period.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 75.6% probability that rates will remain at 3.5% to 3.75%.

As of last check, Bitcoin price was trading a little over $70,900 after dropping 1.2% in the past 24 hours.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:de0b546f6094b:0-will-bitcoin-price-crash-again/