비트코인 23 Bar 이론: 하락장이 끝났을 때 비트코인 가격은 어떻게 변할까요?

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Over the years, there have been different metrics, technicals, and ways in which investors have tried to predict the Bitcoin price bottom with each bear market. Some of these have reportedly done so with some accuracy, while others have seen a deviation. Recently, a pseudonymous crypto analyst who goes by @cryptocupra on the X (formerly Twitter) platform has shared their own bottom prediction, using a 23-Bar Theory.

How Bitcoin Bottoms Go In The Past

In the post shared on the social media platform, the crypto analyst explained that there have been 23 bars that have predicted the bottom of each Bitcoin bear cycle. Apparently, these 23 bars have been accurate over the last three cycles, and thus, could end up predicting another bottom this time around.

The analyst explains this theory using the Bitcoin 1-month chart, showing how many monthly bars it takes until the bottom is in. Going deep into the past, the crypto analyst points out the first iteration of this 23-bar theory taking place back in the 2014 bear market. This 23-month period, approximately 2 years, is shown in the analysis to be an expansion phase, often acting as a launchpad for the price into the next bull market.

Counting out the monthly closes, it shows that there was a total of 23 monthly bar closes before the bottom was in. Following this, the Bitcoin price rebounded, and this move inevitably led to the beginning of the next bull market cycle.

Then again, the crypto analyst says this repeats itself in the 2018 bull market. Like in 2014, there were a total of 21-23 monthly bars, and once these were complete, the crypto analyst says the bottom was in, and then the next rally began.

The most recent of these iterations was back in the 2022 bear market, where the analyst once again points out this theory. They explain that the Bitcoin price saw the same 23 bars before the bottom was in and the 2024-2025 rally began in the months that followed.

Now, in 2026, the analyst believes that this trend is set to repeat itself again. If this is the case, then it means that the bottom is in and that Bitcoin has now entered into an expansion phase within the 23 bars. If this follows, then it could mark the bottom and begin the start of another bull market. According to the crypto analyst, history doesn’t lie, and thus, the BTC price is set to go parabolic again.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:548e93c12094b:0-bitcoin-23-bar-theory-what-happens-to-the-btc-price-if-the-bottom-is-in/