비트코인 상승세가 아직은 '시기상조'라고 단정하기 어려운 상황인데, 이는 자본 유출이 수요 부진과 맞물려 있기 때문입니다: 분석가

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Bitcoin (BTC) hit range highs above $76,000 on Wednesday, but Glassnode analysts say data suggest that calling for the start of a new bull market is premature.

New capital inflows have stayed weak, with Bitcoin’s growth rate remaining negative across all 105 trading days in 2026, highlighting a gap between stable price action and limited new demand.

Bitcoin profitability signal remains unresolved

Glassnode analyst CryptoViz.art uses the true market mean (TMM) to estimate the average cost basis of active BTC investors. The metric divides investor capitalization by liveliness-adjusted circulating supply, filtering out inactive coins and the lost supply.

Bitcoin crossed below this level on Jan. 31 and has stayed there for 75 days. The move placed the average active holder in a loss position, with a peak drawdown of 20% and a current gap of about 5% below the entry level.

Historical comparisons show 10 similar breaks since 2016, with durations ranging from two days to over 11 months. The deepest drawdowns reached 57% during the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 cycles, while the March 2020 event saw a 40% decline over 49 days. The analyst added,

“That said, 75 days is still early. The 2018 and 2022 episodes didn't bottom until months 5-9. The signal isn't "all clear" — it's watch closely.”
Reclaiming the TMM, currently at $78,013, is key for active investors to return to profit, and it has aligned with momentum resets in earlier cycles.

Related: Adam Back says Bitcoin’s post-quantum shift may reveal true Satoshi stash

BTC capital outflows shape the price ceiling

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. points to a steady outflow of capital from the BTC market. The 365-day growth rate of market cap relative to realized cap has remained negative for all 105 trading days in 2026, with the latest reading at -0.000652.

In simple terms, the market is not attracting enough new money to support higher prices.

The 30-day realized cap change shows the same trend. Only seven days saw positive inflows this year, all during a brief period in mid-January. Since Jan. 23, the metric has stayed negative, though it has improved slightly to -0.32% from early April lows near -0.54%.

Realized cap has also dropped to $1.08 trillion from $1.12 trillion since the start of the year, a 3.23% decline.

Adler Jr. said the recent improvement signals a slowdown in BTC outflows, not a bullish reversal. A meaningful shift would require both metrics to turn positive and hold above zero for a sustained period.

Related: Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin fund overtakes WisdomTree after 6 trading days
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:ccedceca0094b:0-bitcoin-bull-run-still-too-early-to-call-as-demand-lags-exiting-capital-analyst/