비트코인의 상승세는 이제 막 시작되었다. 기술적 분석은 앞으로 더 큰 상승이 있을 것으로 예상된다. — Barrons.com

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By Doug Busch

Bitcoin's recent strength is increasingly more than just a crypto story, but a signal about risk appetite in general.

As a highly volatile, liquidity-sensitive asset, Bitcoin tends to outperform when investors are willing to lean into risk, making its momentum a useful barometer for general market conditions. While not a perfect indicator, Bitcoin's current trajectory is again aligning with an environment that favors risk-taking.

Bitcoin lost its footing after printing an intraday high above $127,000 on Oct. 6. A punishing 53% drawdown followed. The tide didn't begin to turn until Feb. 6, when price action staged a near-textbook defense of the $60,000 level, reinforcing round number theory.

The first prerequisite for ending any downtrend is simple. The price has to stop dropping. Over the past 10 weeks, Bitcoin has done exactly that, shifting from persistent weakness to stabilization. The next phase is usually a decisive, confirmed breakout. To assess whether that's underway, it's worth turning to the daily chart:

We can see the triple top that occurred near the $125,000 level, marked by a bearish shooting star candle on July 14 and bearish engulfing candles on Aug. 14, and Oct. 7. Capitulation occurred in early February. The asset has been making higher lows since.

A bullish morning star completed on Feb. 25, with a doji candle the day prior. A bullish harami was recorded with another doji on March 30. This candle suggests selling pressure is abating and often signals the beginning of a positive trend change. Note the back-to-back doji candles on March 16-17 that started the pivot in a bullish ascending triangle pattern, which was broken out at $75,000 on April 14.

On its weekly chart, Bitcoin has bounced off its 200-week simple moving average:

A longer-term double bottom base is taking shape with a trigger just below the very round $100,000 level. Notice the break above a short term downtrend on the ratio chart against the S&P 500, which is another good sign of returning animal spirits. Bitcoin is on track for its fourth weekly consecutive gain after not recording more than a two-week win streak since July. Additionally, respect the recent bullish MACD crossover.

Bitcoin's continued strength isn't just a story about crypto, it's a reflection of a market that's increasingly willing to embrace risk. Look for this to move toward $90,000 in the near term. Remain bullish above $73000. Bitcoin was trading around $78,000 Wednesday.

Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.

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source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260422007866:0/