비트코인 가격이 2021년의 상황과 유사한 움직임을 보이면서, NUPL 지표가 더 큰 하락을 경고하고 있습니다

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The Bitcoin price is starting to look uncomfortably familiar. Multiple tops. Lower highs. Weak rebounds. If you squint at the current structure and compare it to 2021, the resemblance isn’t subtle but it’s somewhat eerie thats making it hard to slide.

Back then, the pattern ended in a violent capitulation. And now, as 2026 unfolds, charts and onchain are whispering the same word again: flush.

Bitcoin Price Mirrors 2021 in 2026

Pull up the Bitcoin price chart on the 2-week timeframe and the structure stands out. In both 2021 and 2025, price carved out multiple tops before sliding into a series of lower highs. Each bounce looked promising, until it wasn’t.

That staircase down eventually gave way to a sharp breakdown the last time around. The current setup in 2026 is tracing a similar rhythm: rally, rejection, weaker rally, rejection again.

Well, here’s the kicker. According to an analyst, MerlijnTrader, one projection on the chart points toward the $48,000 region if history continues to rhyme into 2026. That’s not a prediction carved in stone, but it’s a scenario traders are clearly watching as the broader Bitcoin price prediction narrative shifts from bullish optimism to defensive positioning.

Weak Rebounds, Heavy Structure

Lower highs are typically not bullish. They signal exhaustion. Buyers step in, but not with conviction. Sellers regain control faster each time. That’s exactly what defined the final stages of the previous cycle peak.

The current Bitcoin/USD structure shows similar hesitation. Instead of explosive recoveries, rebounds are fading quickly. Momentum looks tired.

And while some argue this is just consolidation before another breakout, the historical comparison isn’t comforting. The prior pattern didn’t resolve upward. It resolved violently downward.

NUPL Adds Bearish Weight

If the price pattern feels uneasy, the on-chain data doesn’t exactly calm nerves.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric currently sits at 0.17 which is above the zero line. That matters. According to the framework, a true bottoming phase typically forms when NUPL dips below zero, remains there for a period, and then rebounds.

Per this chart, We’re not there yet in bottoming phase. At 0.17, the market still holds net unrealized profit. That suggests the kind of deep capitulation seen at cycle lows hasn’t happened yet. In other words, bearish pressure may not be fully exhausted.

So what does that mean? If the structure continues to mirror 2021 and NUPL stays above zero, the Bitcoin price could still face another leg down before a genuine bottom forms. If history rhymes again, 2026 might bring the final washout before a fresh rally can truly begin.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:13e293cbd094b:0-bitcoin-price-flashes-2021-d-j-vu-as-nupl-warns-of-deeper-flush/