비트코인 가격이 상승, 미-이란 갈등에 대한 우려가 완화되면서 시장 분위기가 개선 — 시장 동향

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1242 GMT - Bitcoin rises to a three-week high as risk sentiment improves on easing concerns over the U.S.-Iran conflict. The New York Times reported that Iran operatives reached out to the CIA to discuss terms for ending the war. President Trump's offer to have U.S. navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz also provided some respite to risky assets, Saxo Bank analysts say in a note. Cryptocurrencies continue to trade as macroeconomic-sensitive assets with price action driven by geopolitical headlines and broader risk appetite, they say. Bitcoin rises to a high of $71,883, LSEG data show. Ether rises to a near one-week high of $2,092. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1222 GMT - The dollar's recent recovery could prove short-lived as the U.S.-Iran conflict will probably last weeks rather than months, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. "If this proves correct, dollar strength is likely to peak in the near term before reversing from the second quarter onwards." The conflict has boosted oil prices and the dollar due to America's energy independence and the reduced prospect of further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Provided energy prices ease, the Fed has scope to cut rates in the second half of 2026, Hardman says, Furthermore U.S policy uncertainty is likely to remain elevated, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 98.805 after hitting a three-month high of 99.683 Tuesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1201 GMT - Supply of new euro-denominated covered bonds is expected to be high in March, even with the ongoing Middle East war, ING's Marine Leleux says in a note. Covered bonds are high-quality bonds issued by financial institutions and are secured by mortgage loans or public-sector loans. "The bulk of that [supply] will come from Canada as over 10 billion euros ($11.6 billion) in covered bonds will mature in March," Leleux says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1156 GMT - Disruption in the Middle East is posing a shock to global supply chains, as around 10% of global seaborne trade is reliant on the Suez Canal, Morningstar's Ben Slupecki says. Vessels are rerouting around Africa, adding an average 10‑day delay and pushing costs higher, he adds. "Supply chains become slower and more expensive, adding more pressure to the situation for European leaders as consumers start to feel the brunt of the conflict in their pockets." Shipping firms are typically cushioned from higher costs through emergency contract clauses, but the real upside comes from pricing power. When supply is constrained, freight rates rise, and higher prices drive profitability. "However, those higher prices also weigh on demand, meaning this is not the money maker one would assume." (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

1151 GMT - European unity is vital as the continent works out its political and commercial relationship with President Trump's administration, Spanish economy minister Carlos Cuerpo says. Trump on Tuesday threatened to cut off trade with the Iberian country after its government said American forces could not use Spanish military bases for attacks on Iran. "We want to send out a message of unity at the level of the European Union," Cuerpo tells TV station La Sexta. "We also want to send out the message that we want to keep working together and deepening trade relations with the U.S.," he says. "That is what is expected by our citizens and by our businesses." Cuerpo notes that the U.S. is an important trade partner for Spain, representing the sixth-largest national market for Spanish goods. "There are many shared interests, and we should protect them." (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

1148 GMT - Fitch Ratings' move to revise Indonesia's outlook to negative from stable highlights growing concerns over fiscal risks and policy credibility, OCBC economists say in a note. The action follows a similar outlook downgrade by Moody's, they note. "The fundamental risks remain on the fiscal side," the economists say, adding that the global backdrop of geopolitical tensions, however, has changed. OCBC notes Indonesia's external and fiscal balances are also vulnerable to sustained higher global prices. "The responses of the authorities will be watched even more closely, as credible policy choices remain a necessity to avert a credit ratings downgrade over the course of the next twelve to eighteen months," they say. (jihye.lee@wsj.com)

1147 GMT - Artificial intelligence is already bringing benefits to the global economy, Bret Taylor, chairman of OpenAI's board and co-founder of AI startup Sierra, says at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. "If we paused model development, we would still have trillions of dollars of economic benefits even with the current technology," he says. He cites the positive effects of AI across coding, software engineering, customer service and legal advice. Taylor notes companies are still in the early phases of AI deployment. (mauro.orru@wsj.com)

1142 GMT - Artificial intelligence carries some risks because of its imperfections, but there are a lot more opportunities from the technology, Bret Taylor, chairman of OpenAI's board and co-founder of AI startup Sierra, says at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. "What's interesting about AI compared to technologies that preceded it is that it's non-deterministic," he says, pointing out that having the same conversation twice with a chatbot might generate different responses. He says AI is still in the early stages of development. (mauro.orru@wsj.com)

1137 GMT - Autonomy is the key to developing artificial-intelligence agents that differentiate themselves from simple software, Bret Taylor, chairman of OpenAI's board and co-founder of AI startup Sierra, says at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. AI agents should be able to reason and take action for the user as well as show some creativity, Taylor says. He notes that AI made huge leaps forward over the past few years that drew the line between simple automated software and real AI agents. (mauro.orru@wsj.com)

1112 GMT - The Bank of England could be forced to raise its key interest rate back above 4% should the surge in energy prices prompted by military action in the Middle East persist, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research says. A year with oil prices at $100 a barrel and gas prices rising a further 50% would push U.K. inflation up by 0.7 percentage points and dampen output growth by 0.2% in 2026, NIESR analysis shows. That would prompt a tighter monetary policy response, with interest rates increasing by approximately 0.8 percentage points this year compared to the baseline, it says. The BOE benchmark rate is currently 3.75%. A more transitory shock to energy prices would raise inflation by around 0.3ppts, allowing the BOE to look through the impact, the analysis says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1110 GMT - The cost of insuring euro credit against default declines as global markets stabilize, helped following President Trump's plan to get oil flowing safely through the Strait of Hormuz. The news has brought mild optimism in markets. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps falls 3 basis points to 274bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. The iTraxx Europe Main index of euro investment grade CDS declines 1bp to 58bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1054 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise as investors focus on the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict. "The tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed oil prices higher, raising fears of energy-driven inflation, which helped support both the dollar and Treasury yields," says DHF Capital S.A's Bas Kooijman in a note. The move in U.S. Treasury yields contrasts with falls in eurozone bond yields, with eurozone investors starting to scrutinize the impact of the war on growth. The 10-year Tresury yield is up 2.1 basis points at 4.077%, while the 10-year German Bund yield is down 1.9bps at 2.755%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260304004455:0/